- flagHVAC reserve gap understatedRF-01 · 86% conf
- findingDeferred HVAC CapEx materially understatedF-01 · high
- modelCapEx reserve$1.2M → $4.4M
- retradeHVAC reserve gap−$2.7M / +$1.8M reserve
The seller's capital plan understates near-term HVAC replacement exposure. The gap between the engineering assessment, recurring work order history, and the seller's budgeted reserve supports a material CapEx adjustment.
Evidence chain
4 supporting · 1 contradictory · 3 missing“RTU-3, RTU-5, and RTU-7 have reached end-of-life expectancy. Recommended replacement within 12–24 months. Combined replacement estimate: $2.6M–$3.8M excluding installation.”
“Compressor / refrigerant work orders: 18 in trailing 90 days. Vendor: Cool Air Mechanical. Avg cost per visit: $1,840. Most repeat: RTU-3.”
“Cool Air Mechanical invoices (2026 Q1): $42,200 across 11 service tickets. Predominantly temporary repair work; no equipment replacement quoted.”
“HVAC line item 2026: $185,000. 2027: $140,000. 2028: $125,000. Total 24-month HVAC budget: $450,000.”
Contradictory evidence
flagged, not dismissed“Seller asserts RTU-3 and RTU-5 can be deferred 5 years with continued preventative maintenance. No third-party bid provided to support.”
Missing evidence
would strengthen or weaken the finding- 01Third-party replacement bid (RTU-3, RTU-5, RTU-7)
- 02Equipment warranty detail
- 03Original install date and remaining useful life from manufacturer