EXIT · Projection support
What we say, what we have, and the gap.
Projections are what the buyer underwrites. The support column is what they'll challenge. CoreNav reads MANAGE evidence and grades each projection — strong, medium, or weak — so we know which to defend, which to soften, and which to lead with proof.
Projection
Forecast
Evidence
Strength
Confidence
Risk / mitigation
NOI growth+8.2%MANAGEMedium72Buyer pushback
72%
Utility savings+$112K/yrPartialMedium68Needs M&V report
68%
Rent growth+5.1%WeakWeak54Submarket study needed
54%
R&M reduction−$180K/yrStrongStrong91Low
91%
Vendor savings+$48K/yrStrongStrong86Low
86%
Insurance−$22K/yrMediumMedium71Carrier dependent
71%
TaxStableStrongStrong88Low
88%
CapEx reserve$240K/yrMediumMedium74Roof life sensitivity
74%
3yr NOI bridge
T-12 NOI$5.18M
+ Utility savings (5.6%)+$112K
+ Vendor savings+$48K
+ CAM recovery+$61K
+ Lease rollover mark-to-mkt+$680K
− Payroll normalization−$80K
Y3 stabilized NOI$6.00M
Buyer underwriting risks
- Buyer may discount 5.6% savings to 3% pending M&V
- Lease rollover at 50% capture is aggressive
- Insurance rebid may not repeat
- Roof life uncertainty — independent study in flight